The economics of 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power
Don’t be fooled by technological uncertainty and the continued importance of regulation; 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 will become more economically attractive.
Peter Lorenz, Dickon Pinner, and Thomas Seitz
A new era for 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power is approaching. Long derided as uneconomic, it is gaining ground as technologies improve and the cost of traditional energy sources rises. Within three to seven years, unsubsidized 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power could cost no more to end customers in many markets, such as California and Italy, than electricity generated by fossil fuels or by renewable alternatives to 온라인카지노 조작 유니88. By 2020, global installed 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 capacity could be 20 to 40 times its level today.
But make no mistake, the sector is still in its infancy. Even if all of the forecast growth occurs, 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 energy will represent only about 3 to 6 percent of installed electricity generation capacity, or 1.5 to 3 percent of output in 2020. While 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power can certainly help to satisfy the desire for more electricity and lower carbon emissions, it is just one piece of the puzzle.
What’s more, 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power faces challenges that are common in emerging sectors. Several technologies are competing to win the lowest-cost laurels, and it’s not yet clear which is going to win. Rapid growth has created shortages and high margins for early players, such as the silicon refiners Dow Corning, REC 온라인카지노 조작 유니88, and Wacker, as well as the component manufacturers First 온라인카지노 조작 유니88, Q-Cells, and SunPower. Fueled by ever-increasing flows of new equity from venture capital and private-equity firms—.2 billion in 2007—innovative new competitors are entering the sector, and with them the potential for excess supply, falling prices, and deteriorating financial performance for some time.
With competition heating up, the companies building the equipment that generates 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power must relentlessly cut their costs by improving the processes they use to manufacture 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 cells, investing in research and development, and moving production to low-cost countries. At the same time, they must secure access to raw materials without tying themselves to the wrong technology or partner.
The evolution of technology looms large for utilities as well. If they hesitate to undertake large long-term investments until the dust clears, they risk losing customers to players such as panel installers willing to put up and finance 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 units on the roofs of buildings in return for a share of the savings the owners enjoy. As always in the utility sector, it will be essential to deploy smart regulatory strategies, which in some regions might mean including 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 investments in the capital base used to set rates for consumers. Government policies will also continue to influence the sector’s development heavily. Deciding when and how to phase out subsidies will be critical for creating a vibrant, cost-competitive sector.
Even in the most favorable regions, 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power is still a few years away from true “grid parity”—the point when the price of 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 electricity is on par with that of conventional sources of electricity on the power grid. The time frame is considerably longer in countries such as China and India, whose electricity needs will require large amounts of new generating capacity in the years ahead and whose cheap power from coal makes grid parity a more elusive goal.
The birth of a sector
The 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 sector includes a diverse set of players, including the manufacturers of the silicon wafers, panels, and components used to generate much of today’s 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power, as well as the installers who put small-scale units on individual roofs, utilities and other operators setting up enormous 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 collection systems in deserts, and start-up companies striving for breakthroughs such as lower-cost thin-film technologies. All are operating in a dynamic environment in which long-held assumptions—subsidies, the primacy of incumbents, and the predominance of silicon-wafer-based technology—are being eroded.
Beyond subsidies
Government subsidies have played a prominent role in the growth of 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power. Producers of renewable energy in the United States receive tax credits, for example, and Germany requires electricity distributors to pay above-market rates for electricity generated from renewable sources. Without such policies, the high cost of generating 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power would prevent it from competing with electricity from traditional fossil-fuel sources in most regions.
But the sector’s economics are changing. Over the last two decades, the cost of manufacturing and installing a photovoltaic 온라인카지노 조작 유니88-power system has decreased by about 20 percent with every doubling of installed capacity. The cost of generating electricity from conventional sources, by contrast, has been rising along with the price of natural gas, which heavily influences electricity prices in regions that have large numbers of gas-fired power plants. These regions include California, the Northeast, and Texas (in the United States), as well as Italy, Japan, and Spain.
As a result, 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power has been creeping toward cost competitiveness in some areas. California, for example, combines abundant sunshine with retail electricity prices that, partly as a result of the state’s policies, are among the highest in the United States—up to 36 cents per kilowatt-hour for residential users.1Unsubsidized 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power costs 36 cents per kilowatt-hour. Support from the California 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 Initiative2cuts the price customers pay to 27 cents. Rising natural-gas prices, state regulations aiming to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and the need to build more 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 plants to keep up with growing demand could push the cost of conventional electricity higher.
During the next three to seven years, 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 energy’s unsubsidized cost to end customers should equal the cost of conventional electricity in parts of the United States (California and the Southwest) and in Italy, Japan, and Spain. These markets have in common relatively strong 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 radiation (or insolation), high electricity prices, and supportive regulatory regimes that stimulate the 온라인카지노 조작 유니88-capacity growth needed to drive further cost reductions (Exhibit 1). These conditions set in motion a virtuous cycle: growing demand for 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 power creates more opportunities for companies to reduce production costs by improving 온라인카지노 조작 유니88-cell designs and manufacturing processes, to introduce new 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 technologies, and to enjoy lower prices from raw-material and component suppliers competing for market share.
We forecast global 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 demand by estimating the payback period for customers in different countries and regions. (Payback estimates rest on projected system costs and power prices, as well as local sunlight and incentive schemes.) Our analysis suggests that by 2020 at least ten regions with strong sunlight will have reached grid parity, with the price of 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 electricity falling from upward of 30 cents per kilowatt-hour to 12, or even less than 10, cents. From now until 2020, installed global 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 capacity will grow by roughly 30 to 35 percent a year, from 10 gigawatts today to about 200 to 400 gigawatts3(Exhibit 2), requiring capital investments of more than 0 billion. Exactly where within this range actual installed capacity falls will depend upon the evolution of 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 costs, carbon costs, and power prices (which in turn are heavily influenced by natural gas prices). Even though this volume represents only 1.5 to 3 percent of global electricity output, the roughly 20 to 40 new gigawatts a year of installed 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 capacity would provide about 10 to 20 percent of annual new power capacity over that period. This level of installed 온라인카지노 조작 유니88 capacity would abate some 125 to 250 megatons of carbon dioxide—roughly 0.3 to 0.6 percent of global emissions in 2020.
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