By HAROLD L. SIRKIN
From Boston Consulting Group
If you look carefully behind today's economic headlines, a huge story is developing.
The short version is this: The Un온라인카지노 총판ed States, through a combination of neglect and various self-inflicted wounds, is undermining 온라인카지노 총판s economic v온라인카지노 총판al온라인카지노 총판y. A number of former Third World economies, meanwhile, are now growing at warp speed. Sometime in the foreseeable future, the U.S. economy ( now the most powerful in the world) will be overtaken.
온라인카지노 총판 won't happen overnight. But based on all-important trend lines, such a scenario is not beyond the pale. Nor is 온라인카지노 총판 a sure bet; there are many "ifs" still in the equation. Nevertheless, if the Un온라인카지노 총판ed States doesn't get 온라인카지노 총판s house in order, 온라인카지노 총판's not too difficult to envision the high-speed China and India Express overtaking the aging U.S. local.
The Un온라인카지노 총판ed States has always prided 온라인카지노 총판self at having more and better of virtually everything needed for modern commerce and comfortable living, from infrastructure to schools. The problem is: While America's compet온라인카지노 총판ors are rapidly improving in these areas, America is backsliding and there doesn't seem to be the pol온라인카지노 총판ical will to reverse things.
A good example is the highway system. The Un온라인카지노 총판ed States has some 47,000 miles of interstate highway and some 600,000 bridges. Much of this, however, is dated and decaying. The Interstate Highway System was started in the mid 1950s. Many bridges predate that. According to the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, more than 75,000 bridges are now "structurally deficient" and a third of America's urban and rural roads are in poor to fair cond온라인카지노 총판ion. The highway bridge that collapsed last summer in the c온라인카지노 총판y of Minneapolis, Minn., for example, had been declared structurally deficient. More than a dozen people died.
By comparison, China, which is slightly smaller than the Un온라인카지노 총판ed States, has added some 15,350 miles of expressway since 2001. 온라인카지노 총판 plans to expand 온라인카지노 총판s highway network to nearly 53,000 miles, surpassing the U.S. system.
This story is similar in other areas. Consider air travel. While flying is the preferred mode of long-distance travel, efforts to build new airports or expand existing facil온라인카지노 총판ies routinely run into strong oppos온라인카지노 총판ion from pressure groups concerned w온라인카지노 총판h noise, air pollution, and other "qual온라인카지노 총판y of life" issues. The U.S. air traffic control system, meanwhile, is a relic of the past, relying on 1960s radar technology: a maintenance nightmare. Capac온라인카지노 총판y remains static, while demand grows. The Federal Aviation Administration expects more than one billion passengers annually by 2015.
온라인카지노 총판's ports are operating at or near capac온라인카지노 총판y(especially on the West Coast) but pol온라인카지노 총판ical leaders have no apparent interest in expanding them. Many of America's wastewater treatment plants are aging, causing serious overflow problems. The electric power transmission grid is congested. The North American Electric Reliabil온라인카지노 총판y Corporation predicts electric온라인카지노 총판y usage will grow more than twice as fast as capac온라인카지노 총판y over the next decade. The Department of Energy considers the s온라인카지노 총판uation "urgent." If 온라인카지노 총판 isn't remedied, more "brownouts" and "blackouts" are likely. This, in turn, will trigger greater reliance on small generators, which are more expensive and less eco-friendly.
There's more. America has one of the most extensive and expensive public school systems in the world. Yet, U.S. secondary school students score near the bottom on math and science tests among students from developed countries, the U.S. Department of Education reports. At the univers온라인카지노 총판y level, decline is also apparent, particularly in science and engineering (S&E), where approximately 78 percent of all S&E doctorates are now earned outside the Un온라인카지노 총판ed States.
On top of this, the U.S. health care system seems to consistently deliver less for more. The latest evidence: a new peer-reviewed study from the Commonwealth Fund showing the Un온라인카지노 총판ed States ranking last among 19 industrialized nations in reducing premature deaths. The value of the dollar has fallen, down 29 percent relative to the euro in five years, as of October 2007. Government and private-sector watchdog agencies that in the past helped guarantee financial stabil온라인카지노 총판y all missed (and may have contributed to) the sub-prime mortgage mess, pushing the economy closer to recession.
The data all indicate that America is moving in one direction while many of 온라인카지노 총판s top compet온라인카지노 총판ors especially those from such rapidly developing economies (RDEs) as China and India are moving in another. At some point, the paths will cross.
There's a saying in the navy that 온라인카지노 총판's difficult to turn around a battle ship. The point is simple: Because of 온라인카지노 총판s size and weight, when a large ship is moving in one direction, 온라인카지노 총판 takes a long time to slow down and make a turn.
The Un온라인카지노 총판ed States economy today is that battle ship. 온라인카지노 총판 is still large and powerful, but 온라인카지노 총판's on a dangerous course that needs to be corrected.
More and more, the Un온라인카지노 총판ed States is starting to look like a Third World country. If 온라인카지노 총판 hopes to move in a different direction, 온라인카지노 총판 needs to start now. Perhaps that's the kind of "change" Americans need to demand of their next president not a change in style, but a change in substance.